Bitcoin Breaks $106K: Analysts Target $130K by Q3 2025 Despite Leverage Concerns

TLDR:

• Bitcoin holds above $106K with higher highs and lows signaling bullish momentum.
• A potential golden cross forms on the hourly chart, hinting at upside continuation.
• Analysts warn rally is driven by leverage, not spot demand, raising sustainability concerns.
• Current setup mirrors Q4 2024 breakout, with targets between $130K–$135K for Q3 2025.

Bitcoin maintained key support levels through the weekend, following a steady breakout from recent consolidation. The cryptocurrency recorded a higher high and higher low pattern, signaling a bullish structure. 

Traders now await direction as U.S. market hours approach, which typically increase volume and price confirmation. With BTC holding above its breakout range, analysts are closely watching short-term signals. 

Meanwhile, some caution remains as leverage appears to drive recent gains more than spot demand.

BTC Price Action Breaks Range, Forms Bullish Setup

According to Stockmoney Lizards, Bitcoin’s weekend behavior aligned with expectations of sideways movement before lifting off. 

BTC broke above a consolidation zone near $106,000, forming a series of higher lows and higher highs on the hourly chart. This shift marked a move from neutral to bullish momentum as the 200-hour moving average was reclaimed.

#Bitcoin

Weekend price action turned out as expected and we got the sideways period.

Now: Higher high and higher low.

That we held this price range is a very strong sign. Today US market open will show where we are headed. https://t.co/pktnPVwAce pic.twitter.com/ReqR6LfRiY

— Stockmoney Lizards (@StockmoneyL) June 16, 2025

The chart also showed signs of a golden cross developing as the 50-hour average attempts to rise above the 200-hour level. This setup historically reflects potential for further upside, especially when accompanied by a volume surge. 

The ability to hold the range over the weekend signals strength as markets prepare to reopen.

However, IT Tech warned that the rally may be fueled more by leveraged bets than by real buying interest. The perpetual contract CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) continues to climb, while the spot CVD remains flat. This divergence suggests that buying pressure is coming from futures markets, not spot markets.

#Bitcoin is climbing again – but look under the hood.

Price action looks strong, yet the fuel behind it comes mostly from leverage. Perp CVD is aggressively rising, while Spot CVD remains flat.

This means:
Demand is not coming from spot buyers
Move is driven by… pic.twitter.com/BEkq9J3Rbm

— IT Tech (@IT_Tech_PL) June 16, 2025

Without participation from spot buyers, the price risk remains elevated. Sustainable price increases require broader market conviction rather than temporary moves by leveraged traders. 

Analysts urge close monitoring of this divergence to assess whether the momentum can continue or fades with market volatility.

Bitcoin Breakout Retest Mirrors Q4 2024 Setup

Cas Abbé compared the current structure to Q4 2024, when a breakout followed by a retest led to a strong rally. 

He noted that Bitcoin retraced to test its breakout level, similar to past behavior before a sharp upward move. Although he doesn’t expect a 50% pump due to a larger market cap now, a climb toward $130,000–$135,000 in Q3 2025 appears likely in his view.

That historical context adds weight to the bullish case if current support levels hold and macro factors remain steady. The market continues to weigh technical setups against underlying demand factors to assess the next move.

At publication, Bitcoin trades at $106,695 with a 24-hour trading volume of $23 billion, per CoinGecko. 

The price has risen 1.54% in the past 24 hours but dipped 0.45% over the past week. Whether this momentum sustains depends on confirmation from volume and demand as U.S. markets open.

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