Bitcoin Price Outlook This Week: What to Expect Ahead of U.S. Midterms

TLDR:

• Bitcoin price holds near $77.8 ahead of the November U.S. midterm elections amid continued market uncertainty.
• Analysts are identifying $80,100 as the immediate critical resistance, while BTC’s support stands near $75,800.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.2 million in outflows on October 30, adding pressure to Bitcoin prices.
• Historical midterm election data show mixed Bitcoin returns, while analysts monitor $73K as a downside target.

Bitcoin has steadied near $77,800 ahead of the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, after a difficult week for crypto markets. The weekend Bitcoin price recovery has brought attention back to the $80,000 level, although buyers have yet to reclaim it. Meanwhile, traders face another week of political uncertainty, with ETF withdrawals and recent security concerns weighing on the market.

Bitcoin Price Faces $80,100 Resistance Before Elections

Bitcoin traded in a narrow range on Sunday after recovering from Friday’s selling pressure. The cryptocurrency had slipped toward $76,000 following Binance’s security breach, but buyers helped stabilize prices over the weekend. Still, BTC remains below $80,000, a level traders are watching for signs of renewed buying.

Crypto analyst Killa identified $78,800 to $80,100 as the first resistance area following Bitcoin’s October monthly close. According to the analyst, BTC needs to reclaim that range before its short-term market structure improves. Failure to move above it could send prices back toward the monthly low.

The latest recovery also follows weaker demand from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded $643.2 million in outflows on October 30. Those withdrawals erased four earlier sessions of inflows, leaving the week with roughly $202 million in net redemptions. ETF demand had already weakened earlier in October, when Bitcoin struggled to maintain its rally above $87,000.

Adding to those concerns, the Binance security breach affected an estimated $6.3 billion in crypto assets. The incident triggered selling across several cryptocurrencies, while Binance pledged to cover customer losses. Bitcoin subsequently recovered some ground, although the exchange’s investigation continued.

Could Bitcoin Price Fall Further After the U.S. Midterms?

With the elections approaching, traders are also comparing Bitcoin’s latest decline with previous market cycles. The historical midterm election record offers mixed results, despite recurring warnings about corrections during election years.

In the month following the 2010 and 2014 midterms, Bitcoin gained 30.91% and 6.61%, respectively, according to analyst Ali Charts. However, the comparable periods in 2018 and 2022 recorded losses of 47.13% and 18.15%. These figures describe historical price movements rather than evidence that elections caused the changes.

Crypto analyst Ted also pointed to earlier corrections during Bitcoin’s previous bull markets. He counted five corrections exceeding 30% during the 2019–2021 rally and four exceeding 25% during 2023–2025. Ted argued that the current pullback could be part of another extended market cycle, although that remains his assessment.

BTCUSD True Market Mean (Source: X)

For the coming week, Glassnode’s short-term holder cost basis near $75,800 provides another price level to watch. A sustained fall below that area would leave recent buyers facing losses on average. Analysts have also identified $73,000 as a possible downside level if selling pressure increases.

However, a recovery above $78,800–$80,100 would challenge the immediate resistance identified by Killa. Traders will also monitor fresh ETF flows when U.S. markets reopen Monday, before Tuesday’s election results bring another market test.

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