Futures desks made 9 out of 10 Bitcoin trades in May while spot activity slowed down

Bitcoin crossed the six-figure line for the first time this year in March and spent April drifting near the high $90,000 area. May opened at $96,505 and on May 22 printed a new record at $111,700, a 15.7 % advance in three weeks.

Since then, the price has been hovering above $107,000, while turnover on derivatives far outpaced spot, showing where risk-taking was concentrated.

Across April, the market recorded an average of 32,403 BTC in daily spot volume and 439,043 BTC on futures venues, placing the spot-to-derivative ratio at 0.0739. During May, those numbers slid to 23,766 BTC and 350,734 BTC, respectively. That pushed the ratio down to 0.0702 and lifted the derivative share of total activity to 93.7 %, the highest monthly print this year.

Summed across the 26 observed trading days, May delivered 618,000 BTC of spot turnover versus 9.12 million BTC on futures books. In dollar terms, using the daily close equates to roughly $67 billion in cash trades and more than $990 billion in futures exposure. This is the lowest the ratio has been since 2023 and shows how far the market has migrated toward contract-based activity since ETFs arrived in early 2024.

This month’s first trading day saw 9,435 BTC trade on spot books against 377,196 BTC on futures, a ratio of 0.0746. On May 22, spot ticks reached 31,599 BTC while derivatives surged to 467,328 BTC; the ratio compressed to 0.0677. By May 26, with price cooling to $109,460, spot volume fell to 14,967 BTC, but futures still printed 289,617 BTC, leaving the ratio at 0.0597, the lowest level of the month.

Open interest followed volume. Futures value locked in contracts climbed from $65.81 billion on May 18 to $80.91 billion on May 22. The jump lined up with the record price and pushed the OI-to-market-cap ratio beyond 0.05 for the first time, flagging a gearing factor greater than 1:20 on many venues.

The pattern is clear: each leg higher in price came with a proportionally larger increase in futures turnover, whereas spot demand faded once the peak was printed. This profile points to price discovery driven by funding-backed positioning rather than outright buying on cash exchanges. With more than nine out of every ten traded coins now cycling through contracts, small funding adjustments can amplify price swings quickly.

Funding rates already reflect the heavier gearing. Data from May 21 to May 23 show the open-interest-weighted rate climbing from 0.0061 % to 0.0181 % before sliding back to 0.0064 %. That bump lined up with the record high, showing how little spot flow was required once perpetual costs turned positive. If rates turn negative, the same mechanism can lower the price through mass position trimming.

Spot exchange-traded funds add another variable. Net inflows between May 15 and May 22 totaled $2.1 billion, yet the price rally outpaced that cash by a wide margin when measured against derivatives volume. With spot desks quiet, any large ETF redemption could force liquidity seekers into futures markets and accentuate moves.

Institutional traders clearly favor derivatives over spot. During the week of the record, the US 10-year yield eased eight basis points and the dollar index slipped 0.6 %. Basis trades that short the front month and buy spot to earn funding narrowed slightly, consistent with the yield move, but never widened enough to entice a wholesale pivot back to cash markets.

Until observable cash buying strengthens, the market sits on a tower of geared positions that can magnify gains and drawdowns. A sustained rebound in spot share would create a firmer foundation for Bitcoin’s price, while another sharp correction could leave Bitcoin’s price exposed to forced unwinds from the derivatives market.

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