Is Skipping Film Festivals Really the ‘Safe’ Option?

Expectations were high for the 2026 Venice Film Festival lineup, considering the possibilities. While there’s plenty to be excited about — from Danny Boyle entering the competition for the first time with “Ink,” to the long-awaited new Werner Herzog film “Bucking Fastard” — the conversations around the announcement are mostly about the upcoming Tom Cruise star vehicle “Digger,” directed by Alejandro G. Iñárritu. It was a no-show this morning, despite Iñárritu having competed at Venice for “Bardo” (2022), “Birdman” (2014), and “21 Grams” (2003).

In hindsight, it’s not too much of a shock to see that the film’s distributor, Warner Bros., is seemingly tapping out of the fall film festival season a second year in a row after its films “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” won the majority of the Oscars this year — and without the help of a Venice or Cannes world premiere. Part of the benefit of festivals is that many Academy members are around to see the films and spread positive word of them among the Oscar voting community. But if you pair recent honorary Oscar recipient Cruise with a two-time Best Director winner, it’s easier to get those voters to come to you.

Venice has not totally scared off studios, as A24 will premiere Robert Pattinson-starrer “Primetime” there, while Searchlight Pictures brings Martin McDonagh’s “Wild Horse Nine” to the festival, and Netflix has festival opener “Ink,” the first Danny Boyle film to be in competition, and the return of director Lee Chang-dong with “Possible Love.”

But Netflix, which has perennially taken up a significant chunk of the competition lineup, opted to only send two films this year when the studio is sitting on David Fincher’s “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” follow-up and Fernando Meirelles’ thriller “Here Comes the Flood,” starring Denzel Washington and Robert Pattinson. It’s one thing with Warner Bros. Pictures, where “Joker: Folie à Deux” was panned at the festival and bombed hard, but another for Netflix to hold off showing its starriest projects at the festival when, at worst, you could say the reception for Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly” or “A House of Dynamite” was lukewarm.

It’s always a risk to send an awards prospect to a festival, but right now it feels like the majority of studios are looking at the glass half-empty, worried that anything but a glowing reception will tank a film’s chances, instead of looking at the glass half-full. Regardless of the conversation around whether film festivals help propel an Oscar contender, in the past few years there have been about two films from the Venice competition that got nominated for Best Picture. If the Venice competition lineup is around 20 films, that means a studio film has a one-in-10 chance of a Best Picture nomination. You know what else has one-in-10 odds? Winning the Oscar for Best Picture. 

If the primary conversation around wide releases this year is that it’s been mostly the risks reaping rewards, this hesitancy around sending films to festivals is not really serving anyone seeking to win an Academy Award.