Arthur Hayes Says Treasury Buybacks Are Fueling a Bitcoin Bull Market

TLDR

• Arthur Hayes says expanded US Treasury bond buybacks are behind Bitcoin’s recent surge
• Bitcoin jumped from around $64,000 to above $80,000 after the August 19 buyback announcement
• Treasury will raise buyback limits to at least $4 billion per operation starting September 9
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $517 million on August 19, the highest daily inflow since May
• Hayes says his fund has moved to maximum risk exposure in Bitcoin and Ether

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, published an essay on August 25 saying Bitcoin has entered a new bull market. He ties this directly to a US Treasury decision to expand its bond buyback program.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on August 19 that buyback limits would at least double. The cap per operation will rise from $2 billion to at least $4 billion between September 9 and November 4.

Hayes argues that buying older, long dated bonds pushes their prices up and yields down. Lower yields, he says, make assets like Bitcoin look more attractive to investors.

How Hayes Compares This to 2023

Hayes draws a parallel to actions taken by former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in December 2023. She increased short term bill issuance instead of relying on long term bonds.

That shift, Hayes says, pulled money out of the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Program. The balance there fell from about $2.5 trillion to roughly $100 billion by January 2025.

Hayes connects that period to gains in both Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100. He says he expects a similar pattern now, and thinks the current buyback size is still too small to move a $40 trillion debt market on its own.

Bitcoin’s Price Moves Since the Announcement

Bitcoin rose from around $64,000 to between $69,750 and $71,000 within days of the announcement. That is a jump of about 8.7%.

The rally kept going. Bitcoin passed $80,000 by August 25, touching an intraday high above $81,000 before settling near $79,000.

Bitcoin Price on CoinGecko

Treasury yields moved too. The 10 year yield dropped toward 4.65% and the 30 year toward 5.20%, but both later recovered part of that decline.

As of this report, the 30 year yield sits near 5.24% and the 10 year near 4.71%. No purchases under the new, larger limits have happened yet, since the expanded schedule begins September 9.

Other factors likely played a role in the rally too. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $517 million in net inflows on August 19, their strongest day since early May.

More than $4 billion in crypto short positions were also forced out of the market during the rally. This added extra momentum to the price move.

The Treasury itself describes the buyback program as a tool for managing liquidity and its own cash position. It does not call the program a form of monetary stimulus.

Hayes also pointed to the Treasury General Account, which held between $940 billion and $1 trillion. He says a large drawdown from that account could add more liquidity if used for future buybacks.

Bessent has said the Treasury could use some of that cash for buybacks without changing scheduled debt auctions. No plan for the full balance has been announced.

Hayes disclosed that his fund, Maelstrom, has shifted to what he calls maximum risk exposure. This includes positions in Bitcoin, Ether, Ethena, and Ether.fi, though he did not share specific amounts.

He has kept a Bitcoin price target near $126,000 by the end of 2026. That would match the token’s October 2025 all time high.

The next milestone comes September 9, when the larger buyback limits take effect. Treasury will review purchase sizes again at its quarterly refunding on November 4.

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