Circle faces 20% revenue risk from AI agents, Mizuho warns

Wall Street has a new worry about Circle Internet Group, and it doesn’t involve rival stablecoins, regulators or crypto winters. It involves chatbots.

Mizuho cut its price target on the USDC issuer to $43 from $45 on Monday and kept its Underperform rating on the stock. The analysts argued that AI personal assistant engines pose a “marked risk” to Circle’s medium-term revenue, and their new target implies a 46% downside from where shares were trading.

The robots are giving financial advice now

The core of Mizuho’s argument is simple. As people hand more of their money decisions to AI agents, those agents may not be fans of USDC.

According to the research, the analysts found that AI agents such as one called Muse tend to nudge users away from holding USDC. Instead, the agents point them toward FDIC-insured bank alternatives that pay higher yields.

The detail that should sting most for Circle: the agents reportedly made those recommendations even when users said they preferred digital assets.

Mizuho put numbers on the potential fallout. The firm estimates this shift could shave $4 billion to $9 billion off USDC’s market capitalization over the medium term.

That translates into a possible 10% to 20% decline in Circle’s reserve revenue.

Why reserve revenue is the whole ballgame

Every USDC in circulation is backed by reserves that Circle holds. Those reserves earn interest, and Circle keeps that income. The more USDC people hold, the bigger the pile earning interest.

Reserve revenue made up 95.2% of the firm’s total revenue in the second quarter of 2026, according to the research.

Circle reported approximately $1.4 billion in revenue for the first half of 2026. A 10% to 20% haircut to the income line that drives nearly all of that is the kind of math that gets analysts rewriting models.

Mizuho did exactly that. The firm trimmed its EBITDA forecast for Circle in 2027 by approximately 5%.

Market reaction and a familiar bear

Investors took note. Circle shares fell between 3% and 7% after the report surfaced, trading around $80 to $83 shortly after the announcement.

This is not Mizuho’s first swing at Circle. The firm flagged competitive threats to the stablecoin issuer back in July 2026, making it one of the more persistent skeptics covering the stock.

What this means for Circle and stablecoin holders

For Circle shareholders, the immediate question is whether Mizuho’s AI thesis shows up in actual numbers. The company is set to report third-quarter results on November 4, and that release should clarify USDC balances and yield data.

For USDC users, Mizuho’s estimate of a $4 billion to $9 billion drop in market capitalization is a forecast about demand, not a warning about the token’s backing. The analysts’ argument concerns how many people choose to hold USDC, not whether each token remains redeemable.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Diego Almada Lopez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.