CryptoQuant’s bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator turns green for the first time since March 2023

Bitcoin’s roller coaster might have taken a turn for the better. CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has turned green, signaling what some hope is the beginning of an ‘early bull’ market. This change, first seen on May 12, 2026, marks a notable shift from the bearish conditions that dominated since March 2023.

Earlier this year, Bitcoin took a nosedive to about $60,000 in February, a dip that had enthusiasts clutching their digital wallets tighter. However, since hitting that low, Bitcoin has risen approximately 35%, a recovery that has caused the indicator to change its tune. Despite Bitcoin’s rebound, it has yet to break through the $80,000-$82,000 range, suggesting that, while the bull signal is promising, the ride isn’t over yet.

Historically, the last time this indicator flashed green, it led to a 17-month march culminating in Bitcoin’s all-time high of around $108,000 in October 2025. By deriving the indicator from their P&L Index and comparing it with a 365-day moving average, CryptoQuant aims to read the tea leaves of market regime changes.

But let’s not pop the champagne just yet. The last time the indicator pointed to a bull market in March 2022, macroeconomic pressures pulled the rug out, turning the signal into a cautionary tale.

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