Sinopec forecasts 600,000 bpd drop in China’s oil demand for 2026

Sinopec, one of China’s largest oil companies, has projected a significant decline in China’s oil demand for 2026, estimating a reduction of 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to the previous year. This forecast suggests an 8.9% drop in apparent oil demand, aligning with recent trends of weaker demand in the country. Market observers have noted that China’s oil demand may have peaked in the past year, with the latest figures indicating a continued softening of demand. This projection by Sinopec is seen as reinforcing expectations of a reduced demand for crude oil and lower refinery throughput in China.

Prediction market pricing appears consistent with participants interpreting Sinopec’s forecast as likely to affect the odds of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30, 2026. The current pricing for this outcome indicates a 1.4% probability, a slight increase from 1% the previous day, but still significantly lower than a week ago when it stood at 3%. The market for a new all-time high by December 31, 2026, shows a 10.5% probability, reflecting a decline from 14% a week earlier.

Key Takeaways

• Sinopec’s forecast appears to suggest a significant decline in China’s oil demand, with a decrease of 600,000 bpd projected for 2026.
• Prediction market pricing suggests a reduction in the likelihood of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by the end of September 2026, currently priced at 1.4% YES.
• The December market for a new all-time high shows a 10.5% YES probability, indicative of continued caution amid Sinopec’s demand projections.

What to Watch

Observers will be closely monitoring any announcements or data releases from key energy organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that could influence global oil demand forecasts. Developments in geopolitical stability, particularly in the Middle East, could also impact oil market dynamics. Market participants may adjust their views based on further supply chain disruptions or policy shifts in major oil-consuming nations.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.