Glassnode: Bitcoin Rebounds Are Local Rallies, Not a Trend Reversal Yet

TLDR:

• Bitcoin trades below the $68,500 Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and $75,800 True Market Mean. 
• Relative Unrealized Loss peaked near 25%, far below the 60%+ seen in prior cycle bottoms. 
• Realized Profit/Loss Ratio sits at 0.75, well above the sub-0.5 seller exhaustion threshold.
• Perpetual demand turns positive and ETF outflows ease, but Coinbase Premium stays negative. 

Bitcoin rebounds seen in recent weeks remain local rallies rather than a broader trend reversal, according to Glassnode.

The on-chain analytics firm says the asset trades beneath the $68,500 Short-Term Holder Cost Basis. It also sits under the $75,800 True Market Mean.

Glassnode attributes the weakness to rising Treasury yields and muted spot demand. Both factors keep price anchored near cycle lows. Until those conditions shift, the firm maintains that any recovery lacks the strength to be called a reversal.

Macro Conditions Keep Bitcoin Under Pressure

The US dollar has weakened since July, typically a supportive signal for risk assets. Price has not responded to this shift in a meaningful way. Elevated Treasury yields appear to be offsetting any benefit from the softer dollar.

The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed toward 4.7% in recent weeks. Higher yields raise the cost of holding assets that generate no income.

Glassnode points to this dynamic as a key reason price has struggled to recover. A sustained decline in yields would likely support a stronger move.

Gold has climbed near $4,400 while oil trades in the mid-$80s. Both assets have benefited from demand for scarce, inflation-sensitive holdings.

Bitcoin has lagged this broader move despite its scarcity narrative. The asset continues to trade more like a liquidity-driven risk instrument.

Market commentary on social media has pointed to this widening gap in recent days. Several traders noted that gold and oil are advancing while price stays range-bound near its lows.

On-Chain Data Confirms Capitulation Phase

Bitcoin broke below both major cost basis levels in February 2026. Glassnode’s models have flagged a bear market regime ever since. Coins are changing hands beneath what buyers and long-term holders paid.

The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis has fallen to $68,500. This sits below the True Market Mean of $75,800. Such a configuration typically appears during capitulation phases. Historically, cycle bottoms have formed within this type of structure.

Relative Unrealized Loss peaked near 25% during the current drawdown. Prior cycles saw this figure exceed 60% at similar stages.

Source; Glassnode

The shallower reading suggests less aggregate financial stress this cycle. Wide distribution of purchase prices around the election period helps explain the gap.

The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio remains at 0.75 on a 90-day basis. Glassnode notes this ratio has historically fallen below 0.5 before exhaustion.

A recovery toward a reading of 2 would signal a stronger shift. Until then, the firm views the bottoming process as unfinished.

Derivatives Improve While Spot Demand Lags

The 30-day Perpetual Market Directional Premium has turned positive again. Leveraged traders are once more paying to hold long positions.

The reading remains modest compared with prior bullish phases. This suggests improving sentiment without reaching euphoric extremes.

The Coinbase Premium Index has stayed negative through much of the consolidation. This points to limited spot buying from US-based investors.

The gap between derivatives and spot activity remains a key signal. A move back above zero would mark a meaningful shift.

Spot ETF flows have improved after heavy outflows in June and July. The seven-day average had fallen to roughly -5,000 BTC per day.

Source: Glassnode

Flows have since turned positive on several occasions, including early August. Consistent accumulation has yet to fully take hold.

Implied volatility has compressed toward the lower end of its two-year range. Bitcoin’s DVOL reading now sits in the mid-30s.

Options markets are pricing in limited near-term price swings. Prolonged compression of this kind can leave markets sensitive to sudden catalysts.

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