Have Disney’s Live-Action Remakes Run Their Course?

Part of the appeal of doing a live-action remake or a legacy-quel or reboot of some kind is that there’s a streaming bump. The original movie from 20 or 30 years earlier suddenly gets a surge of nostalgic interest on streaming and it, in turn, fuels the ancillary revenue even if the box office itself is a little soft.

But in the case of Disney‘s “Moana” live-action remake, which floundered this weekend to just $43 million domestic and $95 million international, well below industry expectations, the original film is only a decade old and is still one of the most-streamed movies ever. It didn’t need a bump.

According to Nielsen, the original animated “Moana” was the fourth-most-streamed kids movie of the year with 5.8 billion hours viewed, and the sequel was the second-most-streamed with 9.4 billion minutes on Disney+, behind only “KPop Demon Hunters.” Of course, it makes sense to give kids even more “Moana” and ride the wave, but there’s not going to be a streaming bump for a movie that is already being watched for billions of minutes a year.

Audiences gave “Moana” an A- CinemaScore, so there’s still some optimism that it can see “how far it’ll go” through the rest of the summer. But this film opened to just barely ahead of last year’s “Snow White” and its $42.2 million domestic start, a movie that was so beset with controversy (it had a B+ CinemaScore) from both sides of the political spectrum that it seemed doomed from the start.

That movie ended up grossing just $205 million worldwide, and if “Moana” did that, it would be a shock for a franchise that to date has made $1.7 billion, including over $1 billion for the animated sequel that came out not even two years ago.

‘Snow White’DISNEY

“Moana” did open above “Mufasa: The Lion King,” which did only $35.4 million in its domestic opening and wound up making $722 million globally, but that was an original film, rather than a direct remake. “Moana” is one of Disney’s current flagship franchises, and you would think expectations would be closer to something like last year’s “Lilo & Stitch,” another billion dollar movie that is already getting a sequel.

The question is whether Disney has a bigger problem on its hands with its live-action remakes that, for the most part, have been easy money in the bank. To date, five different live-action remakes have surpassed $1 billion at the global box office, “The Lion King,” “Beauty and the Beast,” “Aladdin,” “Alice in Wonderland,” and most recently “Lilo & Stitch.” Prior to “Moana,” three of the last four live-action remakes all did very well, with “The Little Mermaid” also earning $600 million despite a slow start of $95 million (“Moana” would love to be part of that world with those dollars). And it’s not a rejection of female-led franchises, as other recent ones like “Maleficent” and “Cinderella” have all done fine.

The problem might’ve had to do with the fact that “Moana” has easily the shortest gap between the original and the remake of any film it has adapted. It stars Dwayne Johnson, the actor who originally voiced Maui in the animated version, and many of the reviews of this film — only “Pinocchio” had worse reviews — faulted it for being incredibly close in fidelity to the original. Even remakes that have stayed true to the original in plot like for “Beauty and the Beast” or “The Little Mermaid” have offered some unique casting choices that have mixed things up.

Coming up for Disney beyond “Lilo & Stitch 2” are remakes of “Hercules,” “Tangled,” a third “Maleficent” movie, and some Gaston and Cruella movies that have long been in development. “Tangled” arrived in 2010 but never performed as strongly as “Moana” did at the box office. We might be more concerned if Disney were fast tracking an “Encanto” remake, but those other titles have as good a bet to make a billion dollars as any of the others.

“Moana” just won’t be one of them.