Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock: Jefferies Sees $54B Peak Sales for Cancer Therapy 

TLDR

• Moderna shares plunged 24.56% despite positive Phase III melanoma trial results.
• Jefferies models $54 billion in global peak sales for Moderna’s cancer therapy.
• The melanoma study met recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free endpoints.
• Jefferies raised Moderna’s price target to $170 and upgraded shares to Neutral.
• Upcoming detailed trial data could shape confidence in Moderna’s oncology pipeline.

Moderna (MRNA) shares dropped sharply despite positive melanoma trial results that strengthened the company’s cancer pipeline outlook. The stock fell 24.56% to $131.55 after trading above $160 earlier in the session. Meanwhile, Jefferies raised its valuation expectations for Moderna’s personalized cancer therapy program.

Moderna, Inc., MRNA

Moderna Melanoma Trial Strengthens Oncology Pipeline

Moderna reported positive Phase III results for intismeran vipatamotide, also known as mRNA-4157, in patients with melanoma. The company developed the individualized neoantigen therapy with Merck for use alongside Keytruda. Consequently, the successful study added clinical support to Moderna’s broader cancer strategy.

The INTerpath-001 trial included 1,137 patients with Stage IIB through Stage IV melanoma after complete surgical removal. Researchers assigned patients in a two-to-one ratio between the combination therapy and Keytruda alone. Both groups received treatment for approximately one year under the study design.

The combination achieved statistical significance on the primary endpoint measuring recurrence-free survival at the first planned interim analysis. It also met the important secondary endpoint measuring distant metastasis-free survival among treated patients. Therefore, the results strengthened evidence supporting the therapy’s potential use after melanoma surgery.

Jefferies Models $54 Billion in Global Peak Sales

Jefferies now estimates $54 billion in unadjusted global peak sales for intismeran across several potential cancer indications. The firm based its model on stronger assumptions for market share, treatment pricing, and approval probability. Moderna would share the therapy’s economics equally with Merck under their existing collaboration.

For melanoma, Jefferies assumes a 60% peak market share and an 85% probability of successful commercialization. The model also uses an estimated treatment price of $260,000 for the individualized cancer therapy. Additionally, the firm increased expected market share in renal cell carcinoma and non-small cell lung cancer.

Merck currently reimburses the therapy’s cost of goods sold while sharing commercial economics equally with Moderna. That structure limits part of Moderna’s manufacturing burden while preserving exposure to future cancer therapy revenue. As a result, successful expansion into more tumors could strengthen Moderna’s revenue mix beyond infectious diseases.

Moderna Stock Faces New Data Test

Jefferies expects the Phase III recurrence-free survival hazard ratio to remain below 0.80 when detailed results become available. A result below 0.70 could provide stronger support for the therapy’s clinical benefit over Keytruda alone. The Phase IIb trial previously reported a hazard ratio of 0.561 after two years.

The firm expects additional data could appear at a major medical meeting, potentially ESMO in late October. Those results will provide more detail about recurrence rates, treatment durability, and outcomes across patient groups. However, weaker supporting details could reduce enthusiasm surrounding the Phase III headline result.

Jefferies upgraded Moderna to Neutral and raised its price target to $170 following the melanoma trial success. The firm cited stronger visibility into Moderna’s effort to diversify beyond its COVID-related vaccine business. Still, commercial adoption and the quality of upcoming clinical data remain important factors for the oncology program.

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