Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust Adds 1,000 BTC as Bitcoin Nears Long-Term Support

• Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust added nearly 1,000 BTC, lifting tracked holdings to 5,761 coins in two weeks.

• The trust had drawn about $408 million in net inflows by July 10 despite sustained Bitcoin market weakness.

• Bitcoin traded about 11% above Fidelity’s lower power-law support boundary in the model published on July 5.

• Three Glassnode-based indicators remained below neutral levels, keeping a bullish reversal unconfirmed.

Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin product continued attracting investor capital during the market downturn, adding nearly 1,000 BTC within two weeks. As a result, the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust’s tracked holdings climbed to 5,761 BTC, worth approximately $370 million, with the asset trading near $64,000.

The increase reflected continued demand for the bank-affiliated investment product despite weaker market conditions. Nevertheless, key on-chain indicators remained below their bullish thresholds, suggesting that accumulation was strengthening even though a broader market reversal had not yet been confirmed.

Morgan Stanley Trust Adds BTC as Fund Inflows Continue

Arkham Intelligence linked the increase to several large transfers from Coinbase Prime into wallets associated with the trust. The deposits included 495.8, 171.9, 166.2, 154.8, 143.3, 126.1, and 120.4 BTC.

Source: Arkham Intelligence

Arkham separately said the product received roughly $13.2 million in Bitcoin during the week. The platform reported that the wallets had recorded no sale since May. However, its post lacked transaction links needed to verify every attribution independently.

Nevertheless, the activity does not represent a corporate treasury purchase by Morgan Stanley. Instead, the trust holds the asset for shareholders through a passive exchange-traded structure.

Moreover, its SEC prospectus states that the fund does not attempt to identify market bottoms or sell at market peaks. Consequently, changes in its holdings generally reflect share creations, redemptions and other settlement activity rather than discretionary trading decisions.

Morgan Stanley launched the product on NYSE Arca on April 8, making it the first cryptocurrency exchange-traded product offered by a United States bank-affiliated asset manager. Since then, investor demand has remained firm despite weaker market conditions.

According to Farside Investors, the fund had recorded about $408 million in net inflows by July 10. Therefore, the expanding Bitcoin balance points to continued participation

Bitcoin Nears Power-Law Support as Reversal Signals Lag

Meanwhile, Fidelity Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer said Bitcoin was moving closer to a long-term power-law support line. His chart analysis placed the asset at $62,685, while the model’s lower boundary stood near $56,488.

As a result, Bitcoin remained roughly 11% above the projected support level at the time. Although previous downturns developed near the same band, the model provides historical context rather than confirmation of a market bottom.

At the same time, analyst Ali Martinez pointed to three Glassnode-based indicators that remained below their neutral thresholds. Those measures included the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio, the Puell Multiple and the Reserve Risk Multiple.

Martinez’s indexed chart subtracts one from each underlying multiple, which places the neutral threshold at zero. Therefore, a negative aSOPR reading indicates that transferred coins were sold at an average loss.

Glassnode also excludes outputs held for less than one hour when calculating aSOPR. By removing these short-lived transactions, the adjustment reduces market noise and provides a clearer view of realized profitability.

Meanwhile, the Puell Multiple compares the daily dollar value of miner revenue with its 365-day average. A reading below one shows that miner income remains below its annual benchmark.

Reserve Risk, by comparison, measures Bitcoin’s price against the conviction of long-term holders. Low readings suggest that committed investors remain reluctant to sell despite weaker market conditions.

Martinez identified an aSOPR move above zero as the first possible signal of a broader reversal. Further breakouts in the Puell Multiple and Reserve Risk Multiple would provide stronger confirmation of a bullish transition.

Until those thresholds are crossed, the data supports an accumulation narrative rather than a confirmed recovery. Therefore, the trust’s rising holdings reflect sustained investor demand, while the broader market continues to show restraint.

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