Trader loses $1M on Cabo Verde’s stunning World Cup tie with Spain

Someone put approximately $1 million on Polymarket betting that Spain would beat Cabo Verde in their World Cup opener. Spain took 27 shots. Cabo Verde took six. The match ended 0-0.

That million dollars is gone. Meanwhile, a trader on the other side of that bet, who staked roughly $400K against Spain winning, walked away with over $4.7 million. The beautiful game, indeed.

The match that broke the model

On paper, this was supposed to be a formality. Spain faced Cabo Verde, a small island nation making its first-ever World Cup appearance, in a Group H match at Atlanta Stadium on June 15.

The goalkeeper, Vozinha, celebrating his 40th birthday and 12 days, became the oldest player to debut in a World Cup match for Cabo Verde. He made seven saves, earned player-of-the-match honors, and essentially turned himself into a human wall for 90 minutes. Spain peppered his goal with 27 shots to Cabo Verde’s six, and none of them found the net.

The result gave Cabo Verde its first-ever World Cup point.

Inside the Polymarket bets

The trader who placed approximately $1 million on Spain to win was making what looked like a reasonable wager. But prediction markets are binary. There’s no consolation prize for being “almost right.” The outcome was 0-0, and the roughly $1 million stake paid out exactly nothing.

A trader wagered around $400K against Spain winning, essentially betting on a draw or a Cabo Verde upset. The payout exceeded $4.7 million, representing a return north of 10x.

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