Samsung Electronics expected to post nine-fold Q3 profit jump on AI demand

Samsung Electronics is expected to report a third-quarter operating profit of around 106.1 trillion won, or approximately $79.1 billion, for the July-September 2026 period.

A year ago, the same quarter produced 12.17 trillion won. That puts the projected gain at nearly nine-fold, driven mainly by demand for the memory chips that power artificial intelligence.

The company is scheduled to release preliminary earnings guidance on October 8, 2026. If the numbers land where analysts expect, Samsung could become the first South Korean company to clear 100 trillion won in quarterly operating profit.

What is driving the numbers

The engine behind the surge is AI infrastructure, specifically high-bandwidth memory, or HBM.

HBM stacks memory chips vertically and places them right next to the processor, so data moves faster and with less wasted energy. That makes HBM a must-have component for the data centers training and running large AI models.

The company’s Device Solutions division, which houses its chip business, is anticipated to post operating margins for chips in the range of 72-76%.

Revenue consensus sits at around 199-202 trillion won. Some estimates point to more than 130% year-over-year growth.

If the forecasts hold, this would be Samsung’s fourth consecutive record quarter.

Closing the gap with SK hynix

For much of the AI boom, Samsung played catch-up in HBM. Its domestic rival SK hynix held the lead in supplying the chips that AI hardware makers wanted most.

Samsung’s HBM market share rose to about 33% in Q2 2026, up from 21% in Q1.

Revenue from HBM4, the newest generation of the technology, is expected to triple sequentially in the third quarter.

HBM4 is also projected to account for more than 60% of Samsung’s HBM revenue in the second half of 2026.

The AI spillover is not limited to HBM. Data center demand is also lifting sales of traditional DRAM and enterprise solid-state drives.

The forecasts have been trimmed, slightly

Not every revision has pointed upward. Analyst projections have been cut by roughly 7.7-8% since late August.

Two factors explain the haircut. Memory chip price gains have moderated, and the South Korean won has strengthened.

Samsung sells chips globally, often priced in dollars, but reports results in won. When the won gets stronger, each dollar of sales converts into fewer won on the income statement.

What this means for the chip industry

Samsung’s expected results reinforce a theme that has dominated semiconductor markets: AI spending has become the single biggest driver of memory demand.

Samsung’s rising HBM share suggests SK hynix’s lead is no longer as comfortable, and the battle for supply contracts with AI chip designers is likely to intensify as HBM4 ramps.

The first concrete test arrives October 8, when Samsung releases its preliminary guidance. Watch the headline operating profit against the roughly 106.1 trillion won consensus, along with any commentary on HBM4 shipments and pricing trends.

If Samsung crosses 100 trillion won, it will mark a national corporate record for South Korea.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Diego Almada Lopez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.