Novo Nordisk (NVO) Stock Plunges: Bernstein Warns of 33% Drop Amid Eli Lilly Rivalry

Key Takeaways

• Bernstein reaffirmed its “underperform” stance on Novo Nordisk with a 203 Danish kroner target, suggesting a 33% decline from the August 7 closing price of 305.10 kroner.
• The firm reduced earnings per share projections for 2026-2031 by as much as 15% beneath market consensus due to accelerating U.S. market share erosion to Eli Lilly.
• Analysts anticipate Lilly’s Foundayo will capture the majority of the U.S. oral obesity market from Novo’s Wegovy tablet by 2028.
• Wegovy pill revenue reached approximately $497 million, falling short of expectations and fueling investor apprehension.
• Wall Street consensus remains at “Hold” with a mean price target of $65.81; shares traded at $47.21 on Friday.

Shares of Novo Nordisk began Friday’s session at $47.21, markedly beneath its 52-week peak of $64.16, as pessimistic analyst commentary continues to weigh on the Danish pharmaceutical giant.

Novo Nordisk A/S, NVO

Bernstein represents the most recent firm to quantify potential downside. The brokerage kept its “underperform” designation while modestly lifting its target to 203 Danish kroner from 200 kroner. Even with the adjustment, this projects a 33% drop from the August 7 closing level of 305.10 kroner.

The analyst house reduced its 2026 earnings per share projection to 20.19 kroner, representing a 7% discount to consensus estimates. Looking further ahead, its 2031 forecast of 24.20 kroner sits 15% below Street expectations. Bernstein noted its bull/bear analysis remains “negatively skewed,” presenting merely 4% potential upside versus 40% downside risk to 2035 projected EBIT.

The fundamental challenge stems from Eli Lilly. Bernstein projects Novo will surrender majority control of the U.S. oral obesity treatment market to Lilly’s Foundayo by 2028, creating significant headwinds for Wegovy pill revenue expectations.

Bernstein has additionally stopped viewing Cagri-sema as a positive catalyst. The medication’s REDEFINE-4 trial results, released in February 2026, demonstrated failure to achieve non-inferiority versus Lilly’s Zepbound. This development eliminates a crucial pipeline opportunity that investors had previously factored into valuations.

Wegovy Tablet Revenue Shortfall Compounds Concerns

Revenue from Wegovy tablets totaled approximately $497 million during the latest quarter, marginally below analyst projections. Chief Executive Mike Doustdar and Chief Financial Officer Karina Hertmann have begun recalibrating investor expectations while emphasizing a more measured growth strategy moving forward.

On a brighter note, Novo elevated its full-year revenue and earnings guidance for the second consecutive time this year. The pharmaceutical company posted Q2 sales of $11.98 billion alongside earnings per share of $0.94. Additionally, a Texas court dismissed antitrust allegations claiming Novo and Lilly inappropriately limited access to compounded GLP-1 medications, eliminating one regulatory concern.

Bernstein made a marginal upward adjustment to its price target following the inclusion of forecasts for coramitug, an antibody licensed from Prothena currently undergoing phase 3 testing for ATTR-cardiomyopathy. The brokerage projects peak revenue of $928 million for this treatment, substantially below the $6.3 billion consensus projection.

Major Shareholders Reducing Positions

Teamwork Financial Advisors reduced its Novo Nordisk holdings by 94.9% during Q2, divesting 95,033 shares while maintaining just 5,091 shares valued at approximately $244,000. Additional institutional investors executed smaller adjustments in varying directions throughout the identical timeframe.

Institutional ownership currently represents 11.54% of total shares outstanding. The stock maintains a market capitalization of $210.77 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.54, and a 52-week low of $35.12.

Among 21 Wall Street analysts monitored by MarketBeat, five assign Buy ratings, fifteen recommend Hold, and one maintains a Sell rating. The average price target sits at $65.81.

Novo announced a dividend distribution of $0.5786 per share, scheduled for payment on August 25 to shareholders registered as of August 17.

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