The Nintendo Switch's days are numbered—but what is that number?

Following that relatively late peak, annual Switch sales fell off much more slowly than those for other Nintendo consoles. By its ninth full fiscal year (which ended in March), for instance, the Wii was barely hanging on, selling new hardware at a rate less than 1 percent of its annual peak years earlier. But the Switch was still selling at about 13 percent of its peak annual sales in its ninth full fiscal year, shipping a significant 3.8 million units.

Things look even better for the Switch when you look at software sales. Nintendo sold nearly 137 million pieces of Switch software in the last fiscal year, a number that’s still roughly 58 percent of its annual software sales peak. At a similar point in their lifespans, even bestselling systems like the Nintendo DS, 3DS, and Wii were all selling software at less than 5 percent of their peak rate.

More than any other Nintendo platform in the 21st century, customers have shown a willingness to keep investing in the Switch well into its old age.

Who needs new hardware?

It’s not surprising that older Nintendo hardware tends to quickly fade away once a replacement is on the market. Ars’ analysis finds that Nintendo consoles usually stay on the market for just one to four more fiscal years after their successors are sharing retail shelf space.

Where the Switch’s future in the market will fall within this historic range is a bit hard to project. On the one hand, the Switch 2 sold nearly 20 million units in its first (partial) fiscal year, heavily outpacing the nearly 4 million full-year sales for the Switch in the 2026 fiscal year. This suggests a lot of pent-up demand for an option more powerful than the original Switch, and a large portion of the market that’s ready to upgrade right away.