Micron investors brace for revenue shifts amid Nvidia product ramp

Micron Technology is having the kind of year most companies only dream about. Revenue up 346% year-over-year, gross margins around 85%, and every last chip it can produce already spoken for. But even a company printing money at this pace isn’t immune to the gravitational pull of its biggest customer’s product schedule, and Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform ramp is creating a timing wrinkle that has some analysts penciling revenue into fiscal 2027 instead of the current year.

A revenue machine running at full tilt

Micron’s fiscal Q3 2026, ending in May, painted a picture of a company riding the AI infrastructure wave with near-perfect form. Revenue hit $41.46 billion for the quarter, and the company guided Q4 to approximately $50 billion as demand continues to surge.

Data center revenue alone exceeded $25 billion in Q3, putting Micron on an annualized run rate north of $100 billion from that segment.

The star of the show is HBM4, Micron’s latest generation of high-bandwidth memory designed specifically for AI accelerators like Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin platform. The company has already generated more than $1 billion in HBM4 revenue, and it’s ramping production at twice the speed of its predecessor, HBM3E.

CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has been signaling confidence by locking down the supply side. Micron has signed 16 strategic customer agreements containing take-or-pay provisions, meaning customers are contractually obligated to either purchase the chips or pay a penalty. Those agreements represent roughly $22 billion in commitments and deposits, with nearly $100 billion in total remaining performance obligations on the books.

The company’s entire HBM supply for 2026 is completely sold out under multi-year contracts.

The Nvidia timing question

Some analysts now estimate that portions of expected revenue may shift from the current fiscal year into the next one, depending on how quickly Nvidia moves through its product qualification and volume production phases.

Supply constraints aren’t going anywhere

Mehrotra has stated that tight supply conditions for HBM are expected to persist beyond calendar year 2027, with gradual improvement potentially arriving in 2028. The company is spending aggressively to expand capacity, with capital expenditures projected to exceed $25 billion.

Analysts are projecting approximately 84% revenue growth for Micron in fiscal year 2027, driven largely by this structural imbalance.

The take-or-pay structure of Micron’s customer agreements adds another layer of insulation. Even if individual product timelines slip, Micron has contractual protections ensuring it gets paid. Nearly $100 billion in remaining performance obligations represents a revenue floor that most semiconductor companies would trade a kidney for.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Diego Almada Lopez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.