Nebius (NBIS) Stock Surges 9% Following BNP Paribas Analyst Upgrade

Key Takeaways

• Shares of Nebius Group surged as high as 9% during Thursday’s session, reaching $248.90.
• BNP Paribas elevated the stock rating to Outperform from Neutral, boosting the price target from $260 to $399.
• Analysts cite strong pricing leverage and constrained AI compute availability as primary growth catalysts.
• JPMorgan similarly upgraded CoreWeave for comparable reasons, though its shares gained modestly by comparison.
• Year-to-date, Nebius shares have skyrocketed 193%, significantly outperforming major indices.

Nebius Group experienced robust momentum on Thursday. Shares of the AI infrastructure provider jumped as much as 9% during intraday trading to hit $248.90, after opening with a 6.4% advance to $241.20.

Nebius Group N.V., NBIS

The rally stemmed from an analyst upgrade by BNP Paribas Exane. Daniel Wang, the firm’s analyst, elevated Nebius to Outperform from Neutral while simultaneously increasing the price target to $399 from the previous $260.

This revised target signals substantial potential appreciation from Thursday’s pre-market levels. The upgrade also positions BNP Paribas among the most optimistic analysts tracking the stock.

What’s driving analyst optimism

The rating enhancement comes amid several positive company developments that have bolstered the investment thesis. Earlier this month, Nebius announced price increases for its on-demand GPU cloud offerings, effective October 1.

Rates for Nvidia H100, H200, B200, and B300 instances will increase between 17% and 21%. Meanwhile, AMD EPYC Genoa CPU pricing will see approximately 25% hikes.

Market participants interpret these adjustments as evidence of constrained AI compute availability rather than operational challenges. This marks the second price increase implemented within a matter of months.

Nebius reported Q2 AI cloud revenue of $574.9 million, accompanied by an adjusted EBITDA margin approaching 50%. These metrics lend credibility to the company’s pricing strategy.

Bank of America analyst Tal Liani maintained his Buy recommendation on Nebius Thursday, with a $310 target. He highlighted the company’s balanced approach between extended hyperscaler agreements and shorter-duration, premium-priced contracts.

According to Liani, Nebius is allocating certain capacity for one- to three-year agreements priced at approximately double hyperscaler rates. He believes this strategy could drive revenue per watt significantly beyond current analyst consensus.

The company also maintains substantial contracts with Meta Platforms and Microsoft, which are scheduled to conclude in early 2026. Wang views these arrangements as indicators of additional business opportunities ahead.

“We expect incremental capacity from Q2 onwards to increasingly reflect higher priced AI cloud contracts,” Wang wrote in his note.

Nebius performance versus CoreWeave

Thursday’s upgrade activity extended beyond Nebius. JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee upgraded CoreWeave to Overweight from Neutral, raising his target from $120 to $125.

CoreWeave shares also advanced, though more modestly at 4% to reach $90.14. Nebius has delivered 193% gains year-to-date, substantially exceeding CoreWeave’s 25% appreciation over the identical period.

Chatterjee referenced the same fundamental dynamic supporting the Nebius thesis: escalating AI compute pricing. Northland Equity Capital Markets data suggests hourly compute rental costs have climbed approximately 33% since December.

Broader market conditions didn’t contribute to the advance. The Nasdaq declined 0.5%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, and the Dow shed 0.4% during Thursday’s session, confirming that Nebius’s rally was purely company-specific.

Despite Thursday’s gains, Nebius trades considerably below its 52-week peak of $299.86. The company’s market capitalization stands at approximately $64.19 billion, with daily trading volume averaging around 20.4 million shares.

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